BULL RUN 2006
Sensex in league with the DOW...Is that a cause of concern, or should we look for the next milestone? Is the Sensex as beleaguered as the Dow?
Stock market in India still may not be more expensive than the developed markets given the pace of earnings growth. Traditionally, despite higher growth rates, emerging markets have not got higher valuations than developed markets as they scored less in several other parameters like macro imbalances, corporate governance, inefficient resource allocation and weak banking systems. However, now America is seen as failing on all these counts, especially given its huge trade deficit and corporate governance issues.
For the second time in 11 years the Sensex crossed the DJIA. Interestingly, it was on March 29, 1999 that the DJIA crossed the 10000 mark for the first time. The two (indices) are obviously not comparable but some feel that the sensex has managed to breach a vital psychological barrier.
The growth has been faster for the sensex than for the Dow. But the two can’t be compared. So, what do we get to conclude??? The US is a mature economy, growing at a much slower rate than India’s. Ours is an emerging market where the economy is expanding at over 8% and is currently viewed as a darling of investors. Also, the Dow is a price-weighted index with adequate measures to boost liquidity, such as automatic stock splits. The sensex, in comparison, is a free-float market cap weighted index
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, as the race has just heated up. In the World Cup of stock market indices, the Indian bulls may have overtaken Uncle Sam, but there are still a few other players that are still in the reckoning. The market's got miles ahead!!!
Stock market in India still may not be more expensive than the developed markets given the pace of earnings growth. Traditionally, despite higher growth rates, emerging markets have not got higher valuations than developed markets as they scored less in several other parameters like macro imbalances, corporate governance, inefficient resource allocation and weak banking systems. However, now America is seen as failing on all these counts, especially given its huge trade deficit and corporate governance issues.
For the second time in 11 years the Sensex crossed the DJIA. Interestingly, it was on March 29, 1999 that the DJIA crossed the 10000 mark for the first time. The two (indices) are obviously not comparable but some feel that the sensex has managed to breach a vital psychological barrier.
The growth has been faster for the sensex than for the Dow. But the two can’t be compared. So, what do we get to conclude??? The US is a mature economy, growing at a much slower rate than India’s. Ours is an emerging market where the economy is expanding at over 8% and is currently viewed as a darling of investors. Also, the Dow is a price-weighted index with adequate measures to boost liquidity, such as automatic stock splits. The sensex, in comparison, is a free-float market cap weighted index
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, as the race has just heated up. In the World Cup of stock market indices, the Indian bulls may have overtaken Uncle Sam, but there are still a few other players that are still in the reckoning. The market's got miles ahead!!!
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